I've been so busy watching as many nominated Oscar films as possible this year that I've fallen off the wagon when it comes to actually reviewing them here on my blog, and for that, I'm sorry to those of you who actually read this with any regularity. I am going to make a better effort to see films more regularly in 2013 so that reviewing them doesn't gang up on me, though who are we kidding...the best stuff all comes out at the same time, anyway. I've also been so busy that I can't seem to locate where I put my statistics from last year, though if I remember correctly, I had one of my better years in predicting the Oscar winners. In fact, I think of the 24 categories, I got 18 of 19 of them correct.
I don't expect to do as well this year, and that's a good thing. And there are a few reasons why these predictions will not be as accurate.
For starters, there is no one film that is poised to sweep everything this year. The film most in position to do so, "Argo," is not the year's most nominated movie, and much has been written and spoken now about how everyone's favorite nomination for the film is the one it didn't even get, that of Best Director for Ben Affleck. The idea of a write-in vote is a tempting thought, and if that possibility were a legal one, I could see it happening. That's how crazy all of the "Argo" love has gotten. But alas, the Academy banned write-in votes after it last happened in 1936. And so Ben will have to be satisfied with the one Oscar he'll take home as the producer of the film, instead of the two many feel he deserves. Poor guy.
Another reason I might not do as well this year is because I've actually seen more of the films this year than I think I ever have. I have seen all nine Best Picture nominees. Of the 20 nominated acting performances, I've seen 19 and might try to sneak in the last one before the show starts. Best Documentary and Live Action Shorts are the only two categories in which I've seen none of the nominated films, and that's only because I couldn't find any online (whereas in past years, I was able to find and watch many of these films). In total, I have seen 27 of the 51 nominate films. Whether or not that seems like much (at 53 percent), that includes every film, including the shorts. Take out the 15 short films and the five I've seen and I've seen 22 of 36 films, or 61 percent of them. Not everyone can say that, unless they are people who review films for a living.
The problem with seeing everything is that you actually develop opinions about them, and I have developed a great many. They range from an overall sense that 2012 was an excellent year for movies to a strong belief that "Argo" as Best Picture is more trendy revenge voting than it is a legitimate choice.
But here you are anyway: my attempt to cut through the voices and online clairvoyants and just pick something, already. And on Monday, you can make fun of me all you want.
BEST PICTURE
Will win: "Argo," because this nonsensical Hollywood outrage will see itself through to its ultimate completion. If everyone thought Affleck deserved these awards, how was he kept from being nominated in the first place? Quick, name me the guy who was nominated for directing "Beasts of the Southern Wild"! You can't!
Could win: "Lincoln," if voters got tired of all Affleck, all the time.
Should win: "Lincoln." "Argo" is going to look dated on my Best Picture shelf, and I'm sorry, it's as slight as people thought "Crash" was when it won. "Lincoln," on the other hand, is going to be timeless. It's important. It's going to be taught in schools. Once again, a Spielberg film for the ages will lose to genre fluff. Sigh.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln." I've read some things online that said that his direction here wasn't innovative in any way and didn't expand his abilities. Give me a break. He's Spielberg. What further expansion of his abilities is required? I think this was his most nuanced work in a decade. He deserves it.
Could win: Ang Lee, for "Life of Pi." Though the film has its troubled spots (read: the entire ending), what director had greater challenges than Lee? An "unfilmable book" for a script, working with children and animals, filming in and on water, prolific usage of CG effects that look both realistic and painterly, and using 3-D successfully for the first time since James Cameron. Some might call a win for Lee payback for his loss for "Brokeback Mountain," and the Academy loves to correct its mistakes. But I think he deserves it here on its own merits.
Should win: Spielberg, for making what was ultimately an action-less film into a riveting experience. And to those who say that his direction wasn't the best of what he's capable of, I ask you to name me another of his films so centered on the acting performances. Never before has he placed his actors so much at the center of his storytelling.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for "Lincoln," because he had the award wrapped up when the first still photo of him in makeup leaked during filming, and because if you know anything about acting you know that it is truly a nuanced and beautiful performance, filled with small and brilliant choices.
Could win: Hugh Jackman's work in "Les Miserables" is the only possible spoiler here, and he had to sing as well as act to even be the runner up who will likely be 20 percent behind in the voting.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, because any other choice, however worthy, would just seem like punishing him for being too good.
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva for "Amour." I know that I'm taking a risk with this one, but there's usually one surprise in the acting categories, and I expect it will be here. Riva is just unbelievable in "Amour," a film that not a lot of people have seen, but I'm guessing that once voters did see it, they couldn't get her off their minds. Add to that the fact that she is truly a legend in the film industry (even if she's not a known legend Stateside), and the fact that all four other options are going to split some of the votes, and I think she can take this.
Could win: Of the remaining options - none of which are impossibilities - Jennifer Lawrence is the most likely to get on stage for her excellent work in "Silver Linings Playbook," a film that I can't see going home empty-handed (but see my next category for my theory on that).
Should win: I haven't seen "The Impossible" as I'm writing this. It's the only nominated performance of all 20 I haven't seen yet, and I'm told that Naomi Watts is revelatory in it. So bear in mind that my thoughts here lack the benefit of having seen her work. That said, I'm not sure anything was as amazing this year as Emmanuelle Riva was in "Amour." Like Day-Lewis, she brought subtle choices to a new level in a truly full-bodied and moving performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook." We don't get to see the final numbers from Oscar voting, but I'd be shocked if the winner of this category clears 25 percent of the overall vote; it's a horse race between five past Oscar winners. Given that the Academy finally renewed its love for Meryl Streep last year after 30 years since her last win, it's time to do the same for the King of the Hollywood Actors as was afforded to its queen. De Niro last won in 1980, about the same distance from today as Streep was from her previous win going into last year's ceremony. When I reflect on "Silver Linings Playbook" as such a well-acted movie, I often think of De Niro's work. I bet the voters felt the same way.
Could win: Most people would have said Tommy Lee Jones, and he was certainly first out of the gate for this award with his scene-stealing turn in "Lincoln." But then, during the long approach to the red carpet, it became obvious that Jones is a grade-A grouch, and I don't think he's liked enough to win. So if anyone else will win, it will probably be Christoph Waltz, because giving an award to "Django Unchained" is something that many voters will want to do and the film stands its best chance for a victory here. Plus, how good is Waltz?
Should win: All five of these performances were stellar, though I felt Waltz was essentially riffing on himself from his last Tarantino film, a role for which he already won this award. So to me, it doesn't seem right to give him two Oscars for versions of the same performance. If I could pick, I'd award Philip Seymour Hoffman's work in "The Master." While I found the film on the whole to be a pretentious mess, I thought both Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix were forces of nature in it; both, in fact, have never been better. It's the most quiet of the five nominated performances, and arguably the greatest.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables." How can she not win? Her "I Dreamed a Dream" scene was shot in a continuous take in close up with her dirty and head-shaved. And it was the most gut-wrenching performance of a song that I have ever witnessed in a film musical, period. So although her character was such a minor part of a grandiose story, I can't think of anyone who would have forgotten about her by the time the movie was over. She's a force, and it's her time.
Could win: Nobody. But if I have to choose, I'd say Sally Field's work as Mary Todd Lincoln in "Lincoln" has the only shot at playing spoiler, if for no other reason than the fact that Sally Field has never lost an Oscar she's been nominated for.
Should win: I do believe that Hathaway deserves this, but a close second worthy of mention to me is Helen Hunt for "The Sessions." I was just very moved by that performance and shocked by the bravery of it. Hunt spends maybe three scenes in the movie with clothes on, and is so incredible in what is truthfully a leading role that she is capable of pulling your attention away from her nudity. She also manages to make discussions about sex be about more than, well, sex.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: I truly don't know which way to go with this one, which is a three-way race between "Amour," "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty." If "Zero" doesn't win here, it runs the risk of going home empty handed, which seems strange to me. But the same could be said for "Django." And yet while "Amour" has Foreign Language film on lock and could also take home Best Actress, I get the feeling that it could eke this one out as well. I'll pick "Amour" and plan to get this one wrong.
Could win: As mentioned above, either "Django Unchained" or "Zero Dark Thirty" are worthy and willing.
Should win: I haven't seen "Moonrise Kingdom" yet. I know...shame on me. I agree with one critic's assertion that "Django Unchained" is little more than "Tarantino masturbating for three hours." "Flight" was brilliant and daring in its structure but pedestrian in its characterization of an alcoholic, telegraphing almost everything. So that leaves it between "Amour" and "Zero Dark Thirty." Considering how Mark Boal has essentially - along with Kathryn Bigelow - created a new genre of narrative documentary, I think he deserves it for "Zero Dark Thirty."
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: This is one award that "Argo" doesn't deserve but winning the screenplay and editing along with Best Picture will go a long way toward legitimizing its win despite the fact that it will be only the third film to win Best Picture without a nominated director. Historically, the film is deserving of as much hubbub for embellishing history as "Lincoln" or "Zero Dark Thirty" is, but the fact that it's managed to steer completely clear of such criticism tells me it's going to grab this one.
Could win: Tony Kushner took only a few pages of Doris Kearns Goodwin's "Team of Rivals" and built a luxuriously verbose masterpiece on it, and the choice to focus on no more than Lincoln's final four months of office and life was shrewd. I think it deserves this award and would love to be wrong with this pick.
Should win: "Lincoln," though it's worth noting that the script for "Silver Linings Playbook" outshines the film's direction (though not its acting), and I would have picked "Life of Pi" had I not felt that it got the ending wrong, seeing as how many thought that a film could not be made from Yann Martel's beautiful novel.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: "Wreck-it Ralph," which shockingly, I've never seen and therefore can't exactly criticize, though it feels like an awfully middle-of-the-road choice here.
Could win: "Brave," for the same reasons that "Wreck-it Ralph" will win.
Should win: Without question, this one should go to Tim Burton for his full-length expansion of "Frankenweenie," which began as a short film he made while still working for Disney at the start of his career. The full-circle moment for Burton contains all of the trademarks of his work and has the added gravity of a wonder-filled creation that touches on hints of autobiography and magically delivers all that Burton is capable of.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: "Amour." It's up for Best Picture. Just like how an album nominated for the Album of the Year Grammy always wins its individual genre category, so too will "Amour" win here. If any other name is called, the screen will go to fuzz.
Could win: ...I'm not even going to bother, and I'm not just saying that because "Amour" is the only nominee I've seen in this category.
Should win: Though I should abstain from this one, I'm doubtful that I will love any of the other nominees here as much as I loved "Amour."
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: "Searching For Sugar Man," a charming but slight documentary that I must admit I was far less giddy over than most people I talk to who have seen it. But every other nominee in this category is a film about some of the most depressing situations on Planet Earth, so I don't see how any of them rise above a genuine feel-good movie.
Could win: "How to Survive a Plague," about the AIDS epidemic, seems like the most likely spoiler here, though film insiders have said a lot about how much they thought "The Gatekeepers" was the best film of this bunch.
Should win: "The Invisible War" is understated work from provocateur Kirby Dick, and the film actually sparked the U.S. Secretary of Defense into action upon seeing it. (He launched an investigation into cases of sexual assault in the military and took the power of review of such incidences out of the hands of officers and gave it to civilian panels, a step in the right direction.) In addition, watching "The Invisible War" was the most angering experience I had with a movie all year - the injustice of it all is just that ridiculous. The film should be required viewing for all enlistees in the armed forces.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Since "Life of Pi" will likely lose out on its above-the-line nominations and since I don't expect it to go home empty-handed, it seems like this is the most deserving award to give to a film that is remembered for how it looks. Recognizing both director Ang Lee and cinematographer Claudio Miranda is not out of the question, but I feel a little more confident that the film will be recognized here. It's one unbelievable visual moment after another, and Miranda pulls off the near impossible by giving depth to the nothingness of the water and air that serve as much of the film's background.
Could win: "Skyfall" runs such a close second to "Life of Pi" in this race that it's tough to call. And I wouldn't be the least bit upset if I got this one wrong, though ultimately, "Life of Pi" feels like the right choice.
Should win: Roger Deakins has been nominated 10 times and has never won. Enough already! His work on "Skyfall" is to die for. Every frame looks like a carefully composed photograph. I could have cared less what was going on in the movie and was even bored with it when an action sequence wasn't going down. But I could barely keep my mouth closed from looking at one stunning visual moment after another.
BEST EDITING
Will win: "Argo," because Best Picture and Best Editing go hand in hand.
Could win: "Zero Dark Thirty"
Should win: Actually, I think "Argo" is worthy of this award!
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: "Anna Karenina" had a unique premise as a story that seems to come to life off of a proscenium arch stage while still managing to plunge the viewer into czarist Russia.
Could win: If voters want to go more the fantasy route, they would pick "Life of Pi."
Should win: "Lincoln" deserves this award for the way the film meticulously creates a 19th Century White House with its dim lighting and browned-out look. And I should think that Spielberg's obsessive use of items actually owned by Lincoln himself or borrowed from that actual era would be reason enough to reward such loving recreation.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: "Anna Karenina"
Could win: "Les Miserables" (for its sheer volume of period costumes) or "Mirror Mirror" (because often this award goes to a film that seems un-Oscar-worthy in every other possible way).
Should win: "Anna Karenina," "Les Miserables," and "Lincoln" are the three I've seen, and they all seem worthy of this award. And though I have not seen "Snow White and the Huntsman," I've heard its costumes are its best feature.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: "Les Miserables." Look no further than the physical transformation of Hugh Jackman throughout the film; Jean Valjean looks as though he could have been played by three different actors.
Could win: "The Hobbit," I guess. It's hard to imagine a Jackson/Tolkein film walking away with nothing.
Should win: "Les Miserables," because the work done on Anthony Hopkins for "Hitchcock" wasn't all that impressive and the best visual effects in "The Hobbit" are digitally created.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: "Life of Pi" is going to win at least one Oscar for its stunning visuals, and it has the potential to win three. My guess is that this is the closet to a lock of all of its chances.
Could win: If "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" is to walk away with anything at all, here's where it has its best chance, and that chance is really, really slim.
Should win: "Life of Pi"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Could "Life of Pi" end up with the most overall Oscar wins this year? Composer Mychael Danna mixes East and West in this memorable score, which I think elevates it above the more classic charms of "Anna Karenina"'s beautiful and conspicuous score and the contrasting extremes of "Lincoln"'s subtlety and the bombast of "Skyfall."
Could win: After driving last year's "War Horse" into the ground with an ethos-heavy work, perennial nominee John Williams lightens up for one of the most effective scores not only of this year, but of his career.
Should win: I must admit that I found all of these scores to be interesting and effective. In a toss-up between "Life of Pi" and "Lincoln," I'd go with "Lincoln" as a sentimental choice.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Skyfall" by Adele and Paul Epworth, for so many reasons. If the previously-announced Bond tribute taking place at the awards isn't hint enough, whom among voters is going to resist sending Adele to the halfway mark on an EGOT? And is there any other nominee in any other category that audiences at home would rather hear give an acceptance speech? And a Bond song hasn't won this award yet?
Could win: When Adele sings "so let the sky fall" in her nominated song, she's also talking about what will happen if anyone else gets their name called for this award on Oscar night. I just don't see it happening. However, if forced to select a second choice, I'd go with "Suddenly," since it's from an actual musical.
Should win: "Skyfall." "Suddenly" is the latest in a long-standing tradition of stage-to-screen translations adding one newly-composed song to the film version so that it can qualify for the one award it seems most worthy of but would be otherwise ineligible to win. Aren't we sick of that yet?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will win: I am genuinely uncertain on this one, and could see it going to either "Skyfall" or "Zero Dark Thirty," though I know that there has been fierce campaigning on the part of the "Life of Pi" team for this award. I'm going to make the mistake of going with my gut over logic on this one and I'll choose "Skyfall." But it's the least confident I feel about any award here.
Could win: I keep wondering how it is that "Zero Dark Thirty," one of the year's best films, could actually go home empty-handed. Certainly it has as good of a shot in this category as anywhere, right?
Should win: "Skyfall" was really loud. Seems obvious, but loud tends to win this one. That said, there's not a film in this bunch that wasn't worthy of a nomination in this category.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: If "Les Miserables" deserves an Oscar, surely it is for this category, given the fact that all of the actors' singing was recorded live on the set, a first for a movie musical and most certainly an amazing technological feat to pull off.
Could win: "Life of Pi" or "Skyfall"
Should win: "Les Miserables"
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: If applying the same rule used on Documentary Feature, I'm told that the only film of the five that won't make you want to slash your wrists after seeing it is"Curfew."
Could win: "Death of a Shadow" looks the most artistic and stars Belgian actor Matthias Schoenaerts, who was quite fantastic in "Rust and Bone," probably the greatest film of 2012 among those overlooked completely by the Academy this year.
Should win: Sadly, I haven't seen any of these this year. A pity, because I really enjoy watching them and have managed to find them online in the past. Security must be tight this year. And so I'm not qualified to select a favorite.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: Most of the critics seem to be going for either "Inocente" or "Open Heart" in this category. I'll go with "Open Heart" here, as it seems to be the more sentimental choice.
Could win: "Inocente" or "Mondays at Racine"
Should win: This is the only other category for which I've seen none of the nominees and can't pick.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will win: "Paperman" blends traditional animation with computer-generated animation and has the benefit of being both heart-tuggingly romantic and a product of the Disney studios.
Could win: "Adam and Dog" is a little longer and is quite beautiful. I could see it charming many voters. There's also a temptation to go with "Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'" because it would be cool for the longest-running TV show on prime time to add an Oscar to its collection.
Should win: "Fresh Guacamole" is brilliant but is barely two minutes long, and I can't see an Oscar going to a film so short. Plus it lacks a narrative story. I was charmed by most of the films this year, but watched "Paperman" multiple times. I think it's pretty great.
So there you have it. And if these predictions would come true tomorrow night, there would be four films sharing the top of the winner's column with three Oscars apiece: "Argo," "Amour," "Les Miserables" and "Life of Pi," with pairs of awards going to "Anna Karenina," "Lincoln" and "Skyfall." I'm not sure if the awards can be so evenly distributed. But we'll find out for certain in just a few hours!
