By this time tomorrow, we'll know who the nominees are for the 2009 Academy Awards. Given the pervasive nature of the award show season and the heavy blogging and campaigning on the Internet, it feels like we already know who most of the nominees are.
Indeed, the advent of the Internet has made it simultaneously easier and more anguishing for me to predict the nominees. I tend to do very well at this and I have a strong track record (though I don't have the specifics in front of me at the moment). But I also second-guess a lot of things, and you'll notice that when you read my prediction.
The format I use for my nomination predictions is the same one I've used for the past decade or so. I attempt to predict who will be nominated in the "big" categories: Picture, Director and the four acting categories. I predict the five nominees and provide two alternates that I think could sneak in. I give myself a point for each one I get right and a half-point for alternates. This used to total 40 points, but now it will total 45 because of the expansion of the Best Picture race to 10 nominees. Then, I tack on what I call "The 10," which is a list of 10 random nominees from any of the other categories I feel certain will be nominated.
I don't suppose I'll ever be confident in my list, and if I wait too much longer, the actual nominations will be out. So here goes nothin'...
BEST PICTURE
As a guy who predicts these things every year, expanding this category from 5 to 10 nominees sucks because I'm rarely off by more than one, and now I stand the risk of being off by three or so. What I know for sure here is what EVERY pundit knows for sure, and that is the fact that if this had been any other year, the five nominees would be: AVATAR, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLORIOUS BASTERDS, PRECIOUS and UP IN THE AIR. With room for double that, I suspect that the somewhat fading INVICTUS is still a good bet, as is AN EDUCATION, a film that fully deserves such recognition. That leaves me with the final three and about seven or eight films to choose from to fill it.
My picks: Avatar, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Invictus, The Messenger, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
My alternates: District 9, The Blind Side
Second guessing myself: The Blind Side doesn't deserve it, but I get a sinking feeling that it could get in. I'd rather believe that a mass-public spot could go to either The Hangover or Star Trek. Is there room for more than one sci-fi choice for Best Picture? If so, District 9 seems to be the second choice after Avatar. The Messenger feels like an Oscar-bait picture, but did enough people see it? Can A Serious Man get in just because it's the Coens? Could This Is It get in there? Now that there are 10 nominees, is there no excuse to avoid adding an animated film if it truly deserves it? Is there room for popular comedy now, or just more quirky indies?
BEST DIRECTOR
This one is easy and I'm no different than anyone else; it's not the category to take risks with.
My picks: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)
My alternates: Clint Eastwood (Invictus), Neill Blomkamp (District 9)
Second guessing myself: Daniels seems the weakest here, but the alternates seem weaker still. I'm fairly confident about this one.
BEST ACTOR
This is another category that just everyone seems to be in agreement. I am incredibly passionate about one of my alternates and wish he'd knock one off here, but I don't expect him to.
My picks: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
My alternates: Ben Foster (The Messenger), Viggo Mortensen (The Road)
Second guessing myself: Foster deserves this as much as anyone else here, but there's not going to be enough room for him, and I think the surprises will come in other categories. There's little reason to worry about anything else I've picked here.
BEST ACTRESS
You won't find many differences among anyone's lists in this category, either. Fear not...it gets exciting after this!
My picks: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
My alternates: Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria), Abbie Cornish (Bright Star)
Second guessing myself: Who's seen The Last Station? I was this close to switching out Helen Mirren for Blunt, who could be a surprise upset here. But in the end, I couldn't take this risk. Is Marion Cotillard loved enough to be a possible spoiler here? I certainly love her that much. Maybe she's a supporting actress candidate?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Now it gets interesting. Waltz is the gimme, and the likely eventual winner. Harrelson seems like a safe bet. But I'm sorry...no matter how many critics are picking Tucci, Damon and Plummer, I'm not convinced that any of them are sure things. There will probably be a surprise here!
My picks: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Christof Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)
My alternates: Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Alfred Molina (An Education)
Second guessing myself: Honestly, Damon isn't that special here, and at one point, I pulled him from my list. But I'm wondering if Hollywood's love for Damon and the fact that the Best Actor list is too crowded for his work in The Informant! will keep him here. Tucci was originally on my list and I switched him out for McKay, but that's a shaky bet. Tucci is much-loved and never-nominated. McKay is playing Orson Welles. I'm counting on an impressive imitation of one of Hollywood's biggest legends of all-time to trump an actor with two excellent supporting performances this year, which could split his votes. As for An Education, I like Peter Sarsgaard even better than Molina and still think it's not impossible to hear his name. I have a lot of reservations here and feel like only Waltz and Harrelson are locks. It's been a long time since I've scored less than a 2.5 in any category. Could that happen here this year?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This list seemed like a lock about a month ago, but not everyone is scrambling. The SAG cast award for Inglorious Basterds makes it feel like more than one actor from that film should be nominated. If that happens, which of the two will it be, Kruger or Laurent? There won't be room for two ladies from any other film aside from Up in the Air. Someone's getting in here who wasn't nominated for a SAG or any other major awards. But I'm not sure who...
My picks: Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Melanie Laurent (Inglorious Basterds), Mo'Nique (Precious), Samantha Morton (The Messenger)
My alternates: Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
Second guessing myself: The Up in the Air girls seem to be locks, and Mo'Nique will win. But what to do with the other two? Diane Kruger is getting more recognition for Basterds, but my gut tells me Laurent for some reason. I feel confident that one or the other is in and we'll see if I guessed the right one. Most are predicting Moore, a perennial favorite, but I've heard that the role is small (I haven't seen it). Gyllenhaal is essentially a lead performance in a movie that is liked for the acting. The only name that I haven't mentioned yet is the formidable Marion Cotillard, and that scares me. She could be here for Nine or Public Enemies - Nine is a lead role but who knows? And Penelope Cruz is on a lot of lists? I can't figure out if the voting block disliked Nine as much as critics and audiences did. I also can't figure out if they loved Samantha Morton as much as I did. I lack confidence here more than anywhere!
THE TEN
Mark my words...all of these will be nominated:
1. Animated Feature: UP
2. Animated Feature: FANTASTIC MR. FOX
3. Foreign Language Film: THE WHITE RIBBON (Germany)
4. Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)
5. Original Screenplay: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
6. Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)
7. Documentary Feature: THE COVE
8. Cinematography: AVATAR
9. Visual Effects: AVATAR
10. Original Score: Michael Giacchino (Up)
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