I know this feeling well. That morning after the Oscars groggy feeling...that "why didn't I go with my gut on this pick" and "how could they pick that?" feeling. Overall, it's a good feeling; I don't know as though there were many "robberies" last night (with the possible exception of the perpetually maligned Foreign Film category). So here are some basic observations about how I did with my predictions and what I thought of the show.
SEEING MORE MOVIES
This year, there were 58 individual films nominated for Oscars. This includes all of the short film and foreign film nominees. By the time the ceremony aired last night, I had seen 32 of those films, including all five animated short film nominees and some work in the lesser seen categories like live action and documentary short and foreign film. When you do the math, that means I saw 55% of the nominated films. On the surface, that doesn't seem like much: just over half. But when you consider the fact that this includes everything, I'm quite proud of myself!
MAINTAINING MY 'C' AVERAGE
Yesterday, I posted my predictions here prior to the show of what I expected to win. I ended up guessing 18 of the 24 categories correctly, a 75% batting average. I don't have last year's stats in front of me, but if I'm not mistaken, this ties my accuracy from last year. I believe I've done better than 18 before, and I know I've done worse, so I feel pretty good - I'm consistent. I've only been writing this blog for about a year now, so at some point, I should go back and compile an official track record.
WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA
Looking back at the six categories I predicted incorrectly, I can honestly say that only two of those were examples of my not going with my gut. The other four, if I'm being honest, I would have gotten wrong no matter what. So I could have ended up with 20 of 24 if I had trusted myself more. The mistakes I shouldn't have made came in the categories of Animated Short and Foreign Language film.
I saw all five Animated Short films this year, and "Logorama" was far and away my favorite. I wanted so badly to pick it as an upset win, but I went with history over my gut, and history says that "Wallace & Gromit" is one of the most Oscar-celebrated cartoons in history. So I went with "A Matter of Loaf and Death." I'm glad I was wrong, but I could have picked up a point by going with my gut instead of my head.
My other mistake was in Foreign Language film, where I thought that an additional nomination for cinematography and the prestige of the Palm d'Or made "The White Ribbon" the favorite, despite the Oscars' history of upsets in this category in favor of a lesser-known, more treacly and emotional string-pulling film. Other Oscar guessers, for that very reason, begrudgingly picked "The Secret in Their Eyes." I defied recent history on this one and went with my head instead of my gut...the opposite of my mistake in the other category. And, consequently, I was wrong again.
As for my other four mistakes, I'd be lying if I said that I wouldn't have gotten them wrong anyway. While I'm thoroughly embarrassed to have gotten both screenplay awards wrong for what I think might be the first time ever, there was no way I'd have picked "Precious" to beat "Up in the Air" for adapted screenplay. That, to me, was the night's one true surprise. "The Hurt Locker"'s win for original screenplay was one that I admittedly did consider picking, but my gut told me that Tarantino put the "original" in original screenplay. I knew this choice was a risk, but you have to take a few risks with your picks, and this is where I had planned to take one all along.
Best Documentary Short was a crapshoot this year for me. I had no idea what to pick and simply guessed wrong. And I expected the sound categories to either be split or both go to "Avatar." In the end, they both went to "The Hurt Locker," and I was lucky to get one of the two by predicting a split.
WHAT I LIKED ABOUT THE SHOW
1. I loved the longer clip montage packages for the supporting acting nominees. Instead of 20 seconds of a well-warn award circuit clip for each nominee, we got a solid, edited package pulled from various scenes throughout the film. This allowed us to get a more complete picture of each actor's work on their respective films, which was great. They should have used the same method with the lead categories (see my "what I didn't like" list).
2. Alec and Steve. I don't know why critics are bashing them today...I thought they were hilarious. More often than not, I thought the jokes and jabs were connecting. It appears I was in the minority. But if you ask me, their bits worked out better than Ben Stiller's "Avatar" stuff.
3. The acceptance speeches of Mo'Nique and Sandra Bullock. Thank you, Mo'Nique, for calling out the b.s. of political Oscar posturing for what it is.
4. The producers did a great job of making the short films and sound categories relevant to the audience. I thought the interviews with former short film winners who went on to feature film success was relevant and interesting. And though using "The Dark Knight" to demonstrate the sound awards felt a little dated, it made sense and helped clarify the confusion of those two categories.
5. Best presenter shtick: Tina Fey and Robert Downey, Jr. Hilarious.
WHAT I DIDN'T LIKE ABOUT THE SHOW
1. While the tributes to the lead acting nominees were sometimes interesting and often touching, what did they have to do with the work that got them nominated? This concept drug on for too long, and they should have used the extended clip sequences they used for the supporting actors.
2. If you're not going to perform the song nominees, why would you perform the score nominees instead? I could have done without the interpretive dance.
3. The horror film clip show. What? Desperate ploy for audience connection. And half of the films they showed clips from weren't even horror films!
4. Too long! Same complaint, different year.
5. Worst presenter shtick: What the hell did Sean Penn say last night? I'm still confused!
Another year in the books! Time to get ready for the films of 2010, now that we're a quarter of the way in! I'd love to hear from you about what you thought of the show and the winners.
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