Keith's Oscar Predictions

Well, today's the big day. One of my favorite days of the year! It seems like a lot of people aren't as excited about the Academy Awards this year because a lot of the races seem like done deals. But when you're someone who predicts the winners, as I have been doing for many years now, you know that not everything always works out. Inevitably, I find myself disobeying my gut when every major online prognosticator picks something else in one of the categories, only to find out that my gut was right.

This year, there are various strategies to consider. One might be to pick "Avatar" for almost everything. With that strategy, you're likely to only get a few wrong. Another strategy says to avoid the build-up hoopla with the acting awards; the four winners are rarely the exact four that everyone expects. To me, the shakiest one there is Best Actress, where I can't help but feel in my gut that Meryl is due for another more than Sandra is due for her first. Yet nobody is picking her.

In some ways, the fact that everyone has their own predictions online has made it harder for me to guess myself because I second-guess a lot more than I used to. Will the sound Oscars be split? Can a Wallace & Gromit cartoon LOSE? I've thought a lot about these things lately.

But, since this year I'm not putting any money on my predictions, I think I'll just have to go with my gut on a few things. If I'm wrong, I'm not out much, right? Maybe just a decreased batting average at predicting these things, as if my success or failure rate at this really translates into anything of substance! So here's what I think...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar or Inglorious Basterds (hey, they expanded this to 10 so I can pick two)
My favorite: I liked a lot this year: Hurt Locker, Basterds, An Education and A Serious Man

BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Could win: James Cameron, Avatar
My favorite: Bigelow

BEST ACTOR
Will win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Could win: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
My favorite: Bridges

BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Could win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
My favorite: Gabourey Sidibe or Carey Mulligan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Could win: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
My favorite: Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Could win: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
My favorite: Mo'Nique

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Could win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
My favorite: Basterds and The Messenger

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Could win: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
My favorite: In the Loop

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Das Weisse Band (The White Ribbon)
Could win: Un Prophete (A Prophet) or El Secreto de Sus Ojos (The Secret in Their Eyes)
My favorite: I've only seen The White Ribbon so far, so I won't pick a favorite yet.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Up
Could win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
My favorite: I loved both Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Could win: Logorama
My favorite: Logorama

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: The Cove
Could win: Food, Inc.
My favorite: I've only seen those two so far and hated Food, Inc., so it's The Cove by default.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Could win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant or Music By Prudence
My favorite: I've only seen China's Unnatural Disaster, and it certainly ripped my heart out.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will win: The New Tenants
Could win: Miracle Fish, though based on what I've heard, The Door and Kavi are equally possible winners...there's been no clear favorite by prognosticators for this one.
My favorite: I have not seen any of these films this year!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Avatar
Could win: The Hurt Locker or The White Ribbon
My favorite: The Hurt Locker and Avatar were both great for completely different reasons

BEST EDITING
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar
My favorite: The Hurt Locker

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will win: Avatar
Could win: Sherlock Holmes
My favorite: Avatar, though Nine would be my "non-digital" choice

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: The Young Victoria
Could win: Nine
My favorite: Nine

BEST MAKEUP
Will win: Star Trek
Could win: The Young Victoria
My favorite: Star Trek

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Avatar
Could win: District 9 (but really, nobody else has a chance...)
My favorite: Avatar

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will win: Avatar
Could win: The Hurt Locker
My favorite: Avatar

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Could win: Avatar
My favorite: The Hurt Locker

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Michael Giacchino, Up
Could win: James Horner, Avatar
My favorite: Up

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
Could win: "Take It All" from Nine
My favorite: "The Weary Kind"