My Oscar Predictions!

I've been so busy watching as many nominated Oscar films as possible this year that I've fallen off the wagon when it comes to actually reviewing them here on my blog, and for that, I'm sorry to those of you who actually read this with any regularity. I am going to make a better effort to see films more regularly in 2013 so that reviewing them doesn't gang up on me, though who are we kidding...the best stuff all comes out at the same time, anyway. I've also been so busy that I can't seem to locate where I put my statistics from last year, though if I remember correctly, I had one of my better years in predicting the Oscar winners. In fact, I think of the 24 categories, I got 18 of 19 of them correct.

I don't expect to do as well this year, and that's a good thing. And there are a few reasons why these predictions will not be as accurate.

For starters, there is no one film that is poised to sweep everything this year. The film most in position to do so, "Argo," is not the year's most nominated movie, and much has been written and spoken now about how everyone's favorite nomination for the film is the one it didn't even get, that of Best Director for Ben Affleck. The idea of a write-in vote is a tempting thought, and if that possibility were a legal one, I could see it happening. That's how crazy all of the "Argo" love has gotten. But alas, the Academy banned write-in votes after it last happened in 1936. And so Ben will have to be satisfied with the one Oscar he'll take home as the producer of the film, instead of the two many feel he deserves. Poor guy.

Another reason I might not do as well this year is because I've actually seen more of the films this year than I think I ever have. I have seen all nine Best Picture nominees. Of the 20 nominated acting performances, I've seen 19 and might try to sneak in the last one before the show starts. Best Documentary and Live Action Shorts are the only two categories in which I've seen none of the nominated films, and that's only because I couldn't find any online (whereas in past years, I was able to find and watch many of these films). In total, I have seen 27 of the 51 nominate films. Whether or not that seems like much (at 53 percent), that includes every film, including the shorts. Take out the 15 short films and the five I've seen and I've seen 22 of 36 films, or 61 percent of them. Not everyone can say that, unless they are people who review films for a living.

The problem with seeing everything is that you actually develop opinions about them, and I have developed a great many. They range from an overall sense that 2012 was an excellent year for movies to a strong belief that "Argo" as Best Picture is more trendy revenge voting than it is a legitimate choice.

But here you are anyway: my attempt to cut through the voices and online clairvoyants and just pick something, already. And on Monday, you can make fun of me all you want.

BEST PICTURE 
Will win: "Argo," because this nonsensical Hollywood outrage will see itself through to its ultimate completion. If everyone thought Affleck deserved these awards, how was he kept from being nominated in the first place? Quick, name me the guy who was nominated for directing "Beasts of the Southern Wild"! You can't!
Could win: "Lincoln," if voters got tired of all Affleck, all the time.
Should win: "Lincoln." "Argo" is going to look dated on my Best Picture shelf, and I'm sorry, it's as slight as people thought "Crash" was when it won. "Lincoln," on the other hand, is going to be timeless. It's important. It's going to be taught in schools. Once again, a Spielberg film for the ages will lose to genre fluff. Sigh.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln." I've read some things online that said that his direction here wasn't innovative in any way and didn't expand his abilities. Give me a break. He's Spielberg. What further expansion of his abilities is required? I think this was his most nuanced work in a decade. He deserves it.
Could win: Ang Lee, for "Life of Pi." Though the film has its troubled spots (read: the entire ending), what director had greater challenges than Lee? An "unfilmable book" for a script, working with children and animals, filming in and on water, prolific usage of CG effects that look both realistic and painterly, and using 3-D successfully for the first time since James Cameron. Some might call a win for Lee payback for his loss for "Brokeback Mountain," and the Academy loves to correct its mistakes. But I think he deserves it here on its own merits.
Should win: Spielberg, for making what was ultimately an action-less film into a riveting experience. And to those who say that his direction wasn't the best of what he's capable of, I ask you to name me another of his films so centered on the acting performances. Never before has he placed his actors so much at the center of his storytelling.

BEST ACTOR
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for "Lincoln," because he had the award wrapped up when the first still photo of him in makeup leaked during filming, and because if you know anything about acting you know that it is truly a nuanced and beautiful performance, filled with small and brilliant choices.
Could win: Hugh Jackman's work in "Les Miserables" is the only possible spoiler here, and he had to sing as well as act to even be the runner up who will likely be 20 percent behind in the voting.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, because any other choice, however worthy, would just seem like punishing him for being too good.

BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva for "Amour." I know that I'm taking a risk with this one, but there's usually one surprise in the acting categories, and I expect it will be here. Riva is just unbelievable in "Amour," a film that not a lot of people have seen, but I'm guessing that once voters did see it, they couldn't get her off their minds. Add to that the fact that she is truly a legend in the film industry (even if she's not a known legend Stateside), and the fact that all four other options are going to split some of the votes, and I think she can take this.
Could win: Of the remaining options - none of which are impossibilities - Jennifer Lawrence is the most likely to get on stage for her excellent work in "Silver Linings Playbook," a film that I can't see going home empty-handed (but see my next category for my theory on that).
Should win: I haven't seen "The Impossible" as I'm writing this. It's the only nominated performance of all 20 I haven't seen yet, and I'm told that Naomi Watts is revelatory in it. So bear in mind that my thoughts here lack the benefit of having seen her work. That said, I'm not sure anything was as amazing this year as Emmanuelle Riva was in "Amour." Like Day-Lewis, she brought subtle choices to a new level in a truly full-bodied and moving performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook." We don't get to see the final numbers from Oscar voting, but I'd be shocked if the winner of this category clears 25 percent of the overall vote; it's a horse race between five past Oscar winners. Given that the Academy finally renewed its love for Meryl Streep last year after 30 years since her last win, it's time to do the same for the King of the Hollywood Actors as was afforded to its queen. De Niro last won in 1980, about the same distance from today as Streep was from her previous win going into last year's ceremony. When I reflect on "Silver Linings Playbook" as such a well-acted movie, I often think of De Niro's work. I bet the voters felt the same way.
Could win: Most people would have said Tommy Lee Jones, and he was certainly first out of the gate for this award with his scene-stealing turn in "Lincoln." But then, during the long approach to the red carpet, it became obvious that Jones is a grade-A grouch, and I don't think he's liked enough to win. So if anyone else will win, it will probably be Christoph Waltz, because giving an award to "Django Unchained" is something that many voters will want to do and the film stands its best chance for a victory here. Plus, how good is Waltz?
Should win: All five of these performances were stellar, though I felt Waltz was essentially riffing on himself from his last Tarantino film, a role for which he already won this award. So to me, it doesn't seem right to give him two Oscars for versions of the same performance. If I could pick, I'd award Philip Seymour Hoffman's work in "The Master."  While I found the film on the whole to be a pretentious mess, I thought both Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix were forces of nature in it; both, in fact, have never been better. It's the most quiet of the five nominated performances, and arguably the greatest.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables." How can she not win? Her "I Dreamed a Dream" scene was shot in a continuous take in close up with her dirty and head-shaved. And it was the most gut-wrenching performance of a song that I have ever witnessed in a film musical, period. So although her character was such a minor part of a grandiose story, I can't think of anyone who would have forgotten about her by the time the movie was over. She's a force, and it's her time.
Could win: Nobody. But if I have to choose, I'd say Sally Field's work as Mary Todd Lincoln in "Lincoln" has the only shot at playing spoiler, if for no other reason than the fact that Sally Field has never lost an Oscar she's been nominated for.
Should win: I do believe that Hathaway deserves this, but a close second worthy of mention to me is Helen Hunt for "The Sessions." I was just very moved by that performance and shocked by the bravery of it. Hunt spends maybe three scenes in the movie with clothes on, and is so incredible in what is truthfully a leading role that she is capable of pulling your attention away from her nudity. She also manages to make discussions about sex be about more than, well, sex.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: I truly don't know which way to go with this one, which is a three-way race between "Amour," "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty." If "Zero" doesn't win here, it runs the risk of going home empty handed, which seems strange to me. But the same could be said for "Django." And yet while "Amour" has Foreign Language film on lock and could also take home Best Actress, I get the feeling that it could eke this one out as well. I'll pick "Amour" and plan to get this one wrong.
Could win: As mentioned above, either "Django Unchained" or "Zero Dark Thirty" are worthy and willing.
Should win: I haven't seen "Moonrise Kingdom" yet. I know...shame on me. I agree with one critic's assertion that "Django Unchained" is little more than "Tarantino masturbating for three hours." "Flight" was brilliant and daring in its structure but pedestrian in its characterization of an alcoholic, telegraphing almost everything. So that leaves it between "Amour" and "Zero Dark Thirty." Considering how Mark Boal has essentially - along with Kathryn Bigelow - created a new genre of narrative documentary, I think he deserves it for "Zero Dark Thirty."

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: This is one award that "Argo" doesn't deserve but winning the screenplay and editing along with Best Picture will go a long way toward legitimizing its win despite the fact that it will be only the third film to win Best Picture without a nominated director. Historically, the film is deserving of as much hubbub for embellishing history as "Lincoln" or "Zero Dark Thirty" is, but the fact that it's managed to steer completely clear of such criticism tells me it's going to grab this one.
Could win: Tony Kushner took only a few pages of Doris Kearns Goodwin's "Team of Rivals" and built a luxuriously verbose masterpiece on it, and the choice to focus on no more than Lincoln's final four months of office and life was shrewd. I think it deserves this award and would love to be wrong with this pick.
Should win: "Lincoln," though it's worth noting that the script for "Silver Linings Playbook" outshines the film's direction (though not its acting), and I would have picked "Life of Pi" had I not felt that it got the ending wrong, seeing as how many thought that a film could not be made from Yann Martel's beautiful novel.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: "Wreck-it Ralph," which shockingly, I've never seen and therefore can't exactly criticize, though it feels like an awfully middle-of-the-road choice here.
Could win: "Brave," for the same reasons that "Wreck-it Ralph" will win.
Should win: Without question, this one should go to Tim Burton for his full-length expansion of "Frankenweenie," which began as a short film he made while still working for Disney at the start of his career. The full-circle moment for Burton contains all of the trademarks of his work and has the added gravity of a wonder-filled creation that touches on hints of autobiography and magically delivers all that Burton is capable of.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: "Amour." It's up for Best Picture. Just like how an album nominated for the Album of the Year Grammy always wins its individual genre category, so too will "Amour" win here. If any other name is called, the screen will go to fuzz.
Could win: ...I'm not even going to bother, and I'm not just saying that because "Amour" is the only nominee I've seen in this category.
Should win: Though I should abstain from this one, I'm doubtful that I will love any of the other nominees here as much as I loved "Amour."

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: "Searching For Sugar Man," a charming but slight documentary that I must admit I was far less giddy over than most people I talk to who have seen it. But every other nominee in this category is a film about some of the most depressing situations on Planet Earth, so I don't see how any of them rise above a genuine feel-good movie.
Could win: "How to Survive a Plague," about the AIDS epidemic, seems like the most likely spoiler here, though film insiders have said a lot about how much they thought "The Gatekeepers" was the best film of this bunch.
Should win: "The Invisible War" is understated work from provocateur Kirby Dick, and the film actually sparked the U.S. Secretary of Defense into action upon seeing it. (He launched an investigation into cases of sexual assault in the military and took the power of review of such incidences out of the hands of officers and gave it to civilian panels, a step in the right direction.) In addition, watching "The Invisible War" was the most angering experience I had with a movie all year - the injustice of it all is just that ridiculous. The film should be required viewing for all enlistees in the armed forces.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Since "Life of Pi" will likely lose out on its above-the-line nominations and since I don't expect it to go home empty-handed, it seems like this is the most deserving award to give to a film that is remembered for how it looks. Recognizing both director Ang Lee and cinematographer Claudio Miranda is not out of the question, but I feel a little more confident that the film will be recognized here. It's one unbelievable visual moment after another, and Miranda pulls off the near impossible by giving depth to the nothingness of the water and air that serve as much of the film's background.
Could win: "Skyfall" runs such a close second to "Life of Pi" in this race that it's tough to call. And I wouldn't be the least bit upset if I got this one wrong, though ultimately, "Life of Pi" feels like the right choice.
Should win: Roger Deakins has been nominated 10 times and has never won. Enough already! His work on "Skyfall" is to die for. Every frame looks like a carefully composed photograph. I could have cared less what was going on in the movie and was even bored with it when an action sequence wasn't going down. But I could barely keep my mouth closed from looking at one stunning visual moment after another.

BEST EDITING
Will win: "Argo," because Best Picture and Best Editing go hand in hand.
Could win: "Zero Dark Thirty"
Should win: Actually, I think "Argo" is worthy of this award!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: "Anna Karenina" had a unique premise as a story that seems to come to life off of a proscenium arch stage while still managing to plunge the viewer into czarist Russia.
Could win: If voters want to go more the fantasy route, they would pick "Life of Pi."
Should win: "Lincoln" deserves this award for the way the film meticulously creates a 19th Century White House with its dim lighting and browned-out look. And I should think that Spielberg's obsessive use of items actually owned by Lincoln himself or borrowed from that actual era would be reason enough to reward such loving recreation.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: "Anna Karenina"
Could win: "Les Miserables" (for its sheer volume of period costumes) or "Mirror Mirror" (because often this award goes to a film that seems un-Oscar-worthy in every other possible way).
Should win: "Anna Karenina," "Les Miserables," and "Lincoln" are the three I've seen, and they all seem worthy of this award. And though I have not seen "Snow White and the Huntsman," I've heard its costumes are its best feature.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: "Les Miserables." Look no further than the physical transformation of Hugh Jackman throughout the film; Jean Valjean looks as though he could have been played by three different actors.
Could win: "The Hobbit," I guess. It's hard to imagine a Jackson/Tolkein film walking away with nothing.
Should win: "Les Miserables," because the work done on Anthony Hopkins for "Hitchcock" wasn't all that impressive and the best visual effects in "The Hobbit" are digitally created.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: "Life of Pi" is going to win at least one Oscar for its stunning visuals, and it has the potential to win three. My guess is that this is the closet to a lock of all of its chances.
Could win: If "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" is to walk away with anything at all, here's where it has its best chance, and that chance is really, really slim.
Should win: "Life of Pi"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Could "Life of Pi" end up with the most overall Oscar wins this year? Composer Mychael Danna mixes East and West in this memorable score, which I think elevates it above the more classic charms of "Anna Karenina"'s beautiful and conspicuous score and the contrasting extremes of "Lincoln"'s subtlety and the bombast of "Skyfall."
Could win: After driving last year's "War Horse" into the ground with an ethos-heavy work, perennial nominee John Williams lightens up for one of the most effective scores not only of this year, but of his career.
Should win: I must admit that I found all of these scores to be interesting and effective. In a toss-up between "Life of Pi" and "Lincoln," I'd go with "Lincoln" as a sentimental choice.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Skyfall" by Adele and Paul Epworth, for so many reasons. If the previously-announced Bond tribute taking place at the awards isn't hint enough, whom among voters is going to resist sending Adele to the halfway mark on an EGOT? And is there any other nominee in any other category that audiences at home would rather hear give an acceptance speech? And a Bond song hasn't won this award yet?
Could win: When Adele sings "so let the sky fall" in her nominated song, she's also talking about what will happen if anyone else gets their name called for this award on Oscar night. I just don't see it happening. However, if forced to select a second choice, I'd go with "Suddenly," since it's from an actual musical.
Should win: "Skyfall." "Suddenly" is the latest in a long-standing tradition of stage-to-screen translations adding one newly-composed song to the film version so that it can qualify for the one award it seems most worthy of but would be otherwise ineligible to win. Aren't we sick of that yet?

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will win: I am genuinely uncertain on this one, and could see it going to either "Skyfall" or "Zero Dark Thirty," though I know that there has been fierce campaigning on the part of the "Life of Pi" team for this award. I'm going to make the mistake of going with my gut over logic on this one and I'll choose "Skyfall." But it's the least confident I feel about any award here.
Could win: I keep wondering how it is that "Zero Dark Thirty," one of the year's best films, could actually go home empty-handed. Certainly it has as good of a shot in this category as anywhere, right?
Should win: "Skyfall" was really loud. Seems obvious, but loud tends to win this one. That said, there's not a film in this bunch that wasn't worthy of a nomination in this category.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: If "Les Miserables" deserves an Oscar, surely it is for this category, given the fact that all of the actors' singing was recorded live on the set, a first for a movie musical and most certainly an amazing technological feat to pull off.
Could win: "Life of Pi" or "Skyfall"
Should win: "Les Miserables"
 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: If applying the same rule used on Documentary Feature, I'm told that the only film of the five that won't make you want to slash your wrists after seeing it is"Curfew."
Could win: "Death of a Shadow" looks the most artistic and stars Belgian actor Matthias Schoenaerts, who was quite fantastic in "Rust and Bone," probably the greatest film of 2012 among those overlooked completely by the Academy this year.
Should win: Sadly, I haven't seen any of these this year. A pity, because I really enjoy watching them and have managed to find them online in the past. Security must be tight this year. And so I'm not qualified to select a favorite.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: Most of the critics seem to be going for either "Inocente" or "Open Heart" in this category. I'll go with "Open Heart" here, as it seems to be the more sentimental choice.
Could win: "Inocente" or "Mondays at Racine"
Should win: This is the only other category for which I've seen none of the nominees and can't pick.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will win: "Paperman" blends traditional animation with computer-generated animation and has the benefit of being both heart-tuggingly romantic and a product of the Disney studios.
Could win: "Adam and Dog" is a little longer and is quite beautiful. I could see it charming many voters. There's also a temptation to go with "Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'" because it would be cool for the longest-running TV show on prime time to add an Oscar to its collection.
Should win: "Fresh Guacamole" is brilliant but is barely two minutes long, and I can't see an Oscar going to a film so short. Plus it lacks a narrative story. I was charmed by most of the films this year, but watched "Paperman" multiple times. I think it's pretty great.

So there you have it. And if these predictions would come true tomorrow night, there would be four films sharing the top of the winner's column with three Oscars apiece: "Argo," "Amour," "Les Miserables" and "Life of Pi," with pairs of awards going to "Anna Karenina," "Lincoln" and "Skyfall." I'm not sure if the awards can be so evenly distributed. But we'll find out for certain in just a few hours!

Ranking the 2012 Best Picture Nominees

I have a policy about creating my top 10 films of the year list, and that policy is that I must watch at least 40 films from a given year in order to make that list. For the films of 2011, that feat took me so long to accomplish that my list wasn't formed until the middle of 2012... kind of embarrassing for a film guru like myself but then I'm not getting paid for this!

This year I am in better shape. Just three weeks in to 2013, I've seen 32 films from 2012, including every Best Picture nominee. In fact, I'd seen eight of those nine films before the nominations were even announced. Still, there are many movies that I feel I must screen before making a best of 2012 list. There are just some movies that deserve my consideration, titles that I feel that if I don't see would render my list illegitimate in some way.

Needless to say, I'm working on it, and I hope to bring that list to you soon. So instead, I thought I'd try a new tradition, which is to rank the nominated films for Best Picture in order of preference. The truth is, I have been doing this on my own for over 20 years, and I've never made my rankings public, until now.

Here's my quick look at the how I'd rank the movies up for the big one this year, from the film I believe deserves that statue down to number nine. I have to say that I am actually fine with each of these films being nominated this year; they all deserve such recognition. That is not something I can say every year. For my specific thoughts on each film, check out their individual reviews here on my blog.

1. LINCOLN
I suspect that Spielberg's "Lincoln" will be remembered as one of his crowning achievements, and the same will be said of Daniel Day-Lewis' performance as the sixteenth president. Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, James Spader and Joseph Gordon-Levitt are perfect. The loving and meticulous recreation of period accuracy is breathtaking. The lighting and sound are exquisite. And a film that is essentially little more than a bunch of people talking took my breath away. In the tradition of the grand days of Hollywood when the Best Picture Oscar went to films deserving of a place in the pantheon, "Lincoln" deserves the award over the other choices on this list, including films that are much more "of our time." Sometimes the master class just deserves to be recognized as such.

2. AMOUR
If Daniel Day-Lewis gave the best male performance on film this year, than surely Emannuelle Riva's work in "Amour" was his female companion at the pinnacle. I can't imagine anyone who calls him or herself an actor - be they a community theatre performer or a SAG member - watching Riva and not being stunned by her raw honesty, vulnerability and outright physical believability. People won't like "Amour" because it's a foreign film (and don't get me started on that). They'll like it even less because it's not an "enjoyable" movie. How much fun is it to watch a married couple in their 80s reaching the end of their earthly walk together? But what film this year was more real than "Amour"? And what film was more perfectly titled? What a wonderful, deserving movie.
 

3. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Creative, captivating, commanding, confusing. "Beasts of the Southern Wild" was this year's little indie that could. And did. From the unforgettable voiceover work and on-screen performance by Oscar's youngest-ever Actress nominee, Quvenzhane Wallis, to the profound complexity faced by audience members in attempting to decide whether her character's father is a good man and father or a rotten one, "Beasts" was the movie I found myself processing for the longest period of time after watching it, and I love movies that confront me in that manner. Some might be turned off by the dour subject matter or its element of the supernatural, which I myself questioned the value of on first viewing but have since come to appreciate. But this film is the portrait of the disenfranchised in our country, and quite possibly the year's best study of minorities in America.

4. ZERO DARK THIRTY
Could it be better than even "The Hurt Locker"? I've thought about it. So brilliantly assembled and directed that I've only just begun to understand how great it is, "Zero Dark Thirty" is appropriately scattered in fits and starts for two hours and then lasers in on its heart-pounding, night-visioned final act.  Jessica Chastain is excellent in the film, but is probably receiving more praise than necessary because she's one of only two significant female characters in the movie. A woman deserving of more praise is director Kathryn Bigelow, who has blossomed into a true auteur with a style that combines documentary with fiction. It's hard not to watch "Zero Dark Thirty" and not be convinced that things went down just like this. Both director and star are tough women playing in worlds dominated by men, and delivering some of the year's most riveting cinema in the process.

5. ARGO
The year's most solid popcorn thriller is definitely "Argo," a film that is currently enjoying the fruits of revenge voting from members of the film community in protest over the omission of director Ben Affleck from an Oscar nod. But while "Argo" was indeed tightly directed and thrillingly executed, it's also evidence of a director who continues to improve with each film (this was his third), but one who still hasn't found a true authorial style.  There is no question that "Argo" is this year's edge-of-your-seat movie, and the ensemble cast is perfect, as is the film's pacing. But it's not a perfect film, and as you can see from my rankings, its completely worthy nomination for Best Picture still places it right in the middle of the pack for me. And yet I'm bracing myself to hear this film's title called out on Oscar night, which would make it the first film since "Driving Miss Daisy" to win the Best Picture Oscar without its director even being nominated. That would be a shame for "Lincoln," for sure. And I'm also wondering if, years down the road, "Argo" will feel as lightweight in this year as "Daisy" did when it beat films like "Born on the Fourth of July" and "Dead Poets Society."

6. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Maybe one of the most enjoyable films to watch this year was "Silver Linings Playbook," and for so many reasons. It has the legendary De Niro in a true return to form, and the up-until-now disposable Bradley Cooper turning in a shockingly powerful lead performance. And it's that rare treat of the movie that is really funny and really sad, charming and romantic all rolled into one movie. It's that true emotional roller coaster experience that doesn't exist in any of the other nominees this year, and as such, it really felt like a throwback to the kinds of movies that won this award back in the 1960s. I was delighted by this film; it felt like a throwback to a bygone era. And yet, while director David O. Russell continues to build his case for being a master at capturing the interpersonal struggles of blue collar families, it's the performances that elevate a film that feels a little slight in its other attributes to be handed the biggest prize in movies.

7. LES MISERABLES
All three movies that remain on this list are problematic in different ways and for different reasons, and I could have easily ranked them in any combination 7-12. "Les Miz" edges out the other two here probably because of my bias towards musicals and my genuine excitement that quality film translations of musicals have made a serious comeback. This is by all means a worthy filmed version of the beloved musical, dropped down a notch in my mind by Russell Crowe's performance, though it's really his singing that bothered me and not his look or his acting performance. Hugh Jackman is probably even better than I gave him credit for after I walked out of the theatre now that I've had time to reflect on his performance. Anne Hathaway's brief screen time is, regardless, some of the most painful and raw moments of performance I can remember seeing in a film. And Eddie Redmayne is the movie's great surprise as the freedom fighter/student Marius. Its massive scope and unbelievable production values are quintessentially Oscar. It's nomination is deserved. And yet, it's not in the top third of what this year had to offer.

8. DJANGO UNCHAINED
I had no more fun at the theatre this year than I did at "Django Unchained," a movie that gives any of this year's other films a run for their money in terms of across the board acting perfection but suffers from a lack of discipline and focus in storytelling on the part of wild man writer/director Quentin Tarantino, who also appears briefly with an inexplicable (and poorly executed) Australian accent. Wildly shifting from one tone to another,  "Django Unchained" is not as good as "Inglorious Basterds" and, if I'm being honest, some of its best characteristics - including the work of Oscar-nominated Christoph Waltz - seem lifted straight from its predecessor. And yet minute for minute, it's a film stuffed with as much production value and attention to detail as "Les Miserables." Not to mention the fact that it's a true film lover's nerdgasm of the year.

9. LIFE OF PI
"Life of Pi" is this year's "Avatar" for multiple reasons. If I was giving the Best Picture Oscar to the most technically stunning film, this would be my choice. Its musical score is virtually perfect, its adaptation of a seemingly unfilmable novel into a workable screenplay a true success. And the special effects are truly breathtaking. So why was there something missing for me when I watched "Life of Pi"? Some of it had to do with the film's final minutes, which I thought lacked the creative vision director Ang Lee poured into the rest of the film. And some of it had to do with how moved I was by the spirituality of Yann Martel's novel and how that just didn't translate to the big screen for me. This "story that will make you believe in God" renewed my continued belief in movie magic, but it never quite took me where I wanted to go.

How would you rank the best picture nominees? Which films that didn't make the cut most deserved to be on the list? Feel free to add your comments!

The Queen of Versailles (2012)

It's a documentary about filthy rich people suffering during the Wall Street collapse of 2008. Many people thought it was the year's best documentary, but it failed to shortlist for an Oscar nomination. So how easy is it to feel sympathy for a family who was attempting to reconstruct Versailles in Florida when the economic collapse halted the production of their palace? Stay tuned for my review.

Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Saw it. Liked it. Wrote an introductory review for it, which got erased. Don't feel like trying to recreate it. So I'll post a review here soon... I hate technology.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)

One thing Peter Jackson hasn't lost is his touch or sense of vision when it comes to his ability to recreate the world of J. R. R. Tolkein, because "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" is a feast for the eyes if ever there was one. It is also, if I'm being honest, a slight test of one's will, clocking in at an indulgent two hours and 50 minutes. Par for the Jackson/Tolkein course, I know, but this time, I felt the time. But that's certainly not to say that spending more time in the Shire and its surrounding vistas wasn't pure cinematic pleasure.

Review coming soon...promise!

The Invisible War (2012)

"The Invisible War" should be required viewing during training camps for every branch of our U.S. military. Ditching his usual bite and bravado, documentary filmmaker Kirby Dick relies only on the facts here. In doing so, his documentary about women (and in the case of the film, one man) who are raped while serving in the armed forces and not compensated for the crimes committed against them makes a stronger point by being a super-safe and traditional medium-shot interview-styled documentary than if Dick had gone for flash.

No film this year will make you more angry. And that's why you simply have to watch it.

I'll have a full review posted as soon as I can. Realizing how far behind I've been with full reviews, I've been taking good notes and promise you a good review as soon as possible! But trust me...see this movie!

Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

Entertainment Weekly says that director Kathryn Bigelow has invented her own genre with "Zero Dark Thirty." They call it "investigative drama."

I call "Zero Dark Thirty" a terrifying, heart-pounding, must-see film that is so meticulously created that you'll find it difficult to believe that you are not watching a documentary of exactly how Osama Bin Laden was located and killed. Sure, we're not supposed to believe films as true accounts of history. But if this film is so far off, why are members of Congress currently investigating Bigelow's creative team for links to breaches of national security? Part of the experience of viewing "Zero Dark Thirty" is in the giving in to it and believing that this is what happened. Do we have enough information to know otherwise?

Once again enlisting the help of Mark Boal, her co-contributor as screenwriter of their Oscar-winning effort "The Hurt Locker," Bigelow and company return again to the Middle East and recapture a level of tense suspense the likes of which I haven't seen since, well, "The Hurt Locker." The only other film that has matched this level of excitement this year has been "Argo," and in a funny coincidence, both co-star Kyle Chandler. So for 2012, it's clear that Coach Taylor = suspense!

Moments of cerebral investigation are broken apart without warning via acts of shocking violence, making "Zero Dark Thirty" feel like as much of a thriller as it feels like a History Channel masterclass. And that final raid? It's as intense as you imagined it would be.

Visit here again for a full review of what is sure to be one of the front-runners for Oscar.