Monday, January 24, 2011
Oscar predictions!
It’s also foolish to think just with my own head and heart. The nominations are not always about who best deserves these accolades; sometimes it’s about who has had a long and unrewarded career—who’s due. And other political factors can come into play as well.
The format I use for my nomination predictions is the same one I've used for the past decade or so. I attempt to predict who will be nominated in the "big" categories: Picture, Director and the four acting categories. I predict the five nominees and provide two alternates that I think could sneak in. I give myself a point for each one I get right and a half-point for alternates. This used to total 40 points, but now it will total 45 because of the expansion of the Best Picture race to 10 nominees. Then, I tack on what I call "The 10," which is a list of 10 random nominees from any of the other categories I feel certain will be nominated.
Check back here soon to see how I did. The nominations are only nine hours away!
BEST PICTURE
Like last year, there are essentially five films that are truly competing for this award and then five others who will be lucky to consider themselves nominees in this category but have a much smaller chance of winning. Everyone believes this is already whittled down to a two-horse race between THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE KING’S SPEECH. I think it’s a little dangerous not to include a few more films at the top as well, though I admit that these two are the front-runners.
My picks: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit
My alternates: Winter’s Bone, The Ghost Writer
Second guessing myself: Winter’s Bone has been on most lists for a long time now, and it’s a good movie. But I’m letting my heart get the better of me here because 127 Hours is a GREAT movie, and I think Boyle, a recent Best Picture and Director winner, should have more friends in the voting block. There’d be room for both if I didn’t think that The Town now feels likely, too.
BEST DIRECTOR
My picks: Daren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), David O. Russell (The Fighter)
My alternates: Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit) and Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
Second guessing myself: I’m feeling confident about this category, as this basically lines up with the DGA nods and they tend to not vary by more than one nomination. After seeing True Grit, I feel like it’s a fantastic film that is not very Coen-y, and it will probably score in the screenplay and acting categories, along with technical nods. This lets Russell in for stepping into a project that was already in the works and doing a good job with it. I have NO doubts about any of the other nominees.
BEST ACTOR
My picks: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)
My alternates: Robert Duvall (Get Low), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
Second guessing myself: Duvall would replace Bardem, but I feel confident about the other choices. Wahlberg would be swept in with the other acting nominees from his film, and that could very easily happen and would not be shameful, as he gives the most understated performance of all of those listed here. The name I’m nervous about not including is Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. But I think Michelle Williams has a better chance than he does, though he’s a fantastic actor. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about leaving him off my list completely. I also thought about Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, but not everyone loved his work in that film as much as I did.
BEST ACTRESS
My picks: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
My alternates: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Second guessing myself: Steinfeld has been on everyone’s supporting list all season, but that is a lead performance and my gut tells me we’ll in for the surprise we got when Kate Winslet was nominated in lead instead of supporting for The Reader (which she won). I’m putting Steinfeld as a supporting actress nominee, too, just in case. So I’m essentially throwing away one slot by double-booking her. This keeps me from adding in Leslie Manville for Another Year, a much-talked-about performance that I have not seen and also one that I’ve seen on a few supporting lists. And what about Hilary Swank? I’m nervous not having her on here, though I think she’s a long shot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My picks: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
My alternates: Matt Damon (True Grit), Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps)
Second guessing myself: I’m confident about this category. Douglas would be a sympathy vote for his recent cancer battle and the fact that he’s reprising a character over 20 years later that won an Oscar already. I wonder if Sam Rockwell has a chance for Conviction. Or maybe Pete Postlethwaite for The Town, in light of his recent death. The only other name that I wish I had room for here is John Fawkes for Winter’s Bone. I’m more nervous about omitting his name than any of these others.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My picks: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
My alternates: Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Second guessing myself: Steinfeld was once a lock for me here but now I am wondering if there won’t be a best actress surprise with her. I’m feeling like she will be nominated in one spot or the other, so I’m either getting a point for her or a half-point. Kunis is the shaky choice for me; I could see her being swapped out for Barbara Hershey from the same film. Short of Leslie Manville showing up here, I think just about any other name not already listed here would be the shocker of the day.
THE TEN
I will be shocked if I got any of these wrong…
1. Art Direction: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
2. Costume Design: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
3. Visual Effects: INCEPTION
4. Original Score: Alexander Desplat (The King’s Speech)
5. Original Screenplay: David Seidler (The King’s Speech)
6. Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
7. Animated Feature: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
8. Animated Feature: TOY STORY 3
9. Cinematography: Wally Pfister (Inception)
10. Documentary Feature: WAITING FOR SUPERMAN
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Despicable Me (2010)
Having been a Disney devotee my whole life, I realized after watching DESPICABLE ME that 2010 might have been the year that finally broke me of my animation elitism. I was not a fan of the Shrek or Ice Age movies, and barring the occasional exceptions (such as “Happy Feet” and “Monster House”), I tended to dismiss most animated films that were not Disney or Pixar films. I had no rational reason to do so, of course; many of the Disney studio’s recent films (“Bolt,” “Meet the Robinsons”) were sub-par and certainly not as good as some of the animation happening outside of the mouse house.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Buried (2010)
Though “127 Hours” had a much higher profile and an Oscar-caliber pedigree, it was not the only film released in 2010 that focused solely on one actor for the majority of its running time. BURIED, starring Ryan Reynolds, took that concept even further; Reynolds is the only actor to appear in the film. And his character is equally trapped, if not more so. The result is a film that probably falls more into the category of an experiment, and while it’s certainly too bleak to merit repeat viewings, it’s the kind of experiment that can satisfy true movie lovers.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Get Low (2010)
Restrepo (2010)
Watching RESTREPO did not feel like watching a movie; it felt like watching—perhaps for the first time—what is really going on in Afghanistan with our military. We read in the news about embedded journalists and hear their stories when they come home. On occasion, we get a glimpse of reality when a reporter stands in front of an authentic background during a relatively safe moment to report from a war zone.
The film intercuts this raw footage with debriefings from a half dozen of the men in the company; some of RESTREPO’s most compelling moments are those when, in interviews conducted after their deployment ended, the men are unable to cleanly articulate the events that transpired. They work hard to hold themselves together. Sometimes they even smile. But they are deeply affected. One soldier says it best: “I can only hope that I’ll learn how to process what happened to me better,” he says (and I’m paraphrasing). “Because I’m never going to forget that it happened.”
The closing minutes of RESTREPO are among the most powerful. In a silent sequence, the directors feature the faces of each of the men interviewed for the film. They stare silently into the camera, and their faces are held on screen for what seems like minutes. One can't help but see the pain in their eyes and wish for the opportunity to personally thank them for their sacrifices. It is a humbling montage.
I have watched many films about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but most of them felt like films, and many had a political slant. RESTREPO is none of that. What it is, instead, is required viewing. And in a year that featured a number of films about tough, depressing subjects that were hard to watch, this one might be the hardest.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Rabbit Hole (2010)
The media tells the story that when a married couple experiences the death of a child, the marriage cannot withstand that grief, resulting in a divorce rate of somewhere near 70% for couples in this situation. That makes a lot of sense when you think about it, because each of us grieves a loss in our own way; it would be difficult for a couple to grieve together in the same way and keep that unity intact.
In reality, however, the divorce rate of couples who experience the death of a child is under 20%. For this and many other reasons, David Lindsay-Abaire’s play-and-now-movie, RABBIT HOLE, is a stunning, raw and real piece of theatre, a transparent look at marriage and grief as it really is, not how it’s portrayed in the media.
The film version of RABBIT HOLE stars Nicole Kidman as Becca and Aaron Eckhart as her husband, Howie. The are only eight months removed from the day when their 4-year-old son chased the family dog out of the yard and into the street, where he was stuck by a teenage driver and died.
Becca and Howie do what they are supposed to do in their attempts to deal with their soul-crushing despair. They attend group therapy sessions for couples who have lost children, but Becca is incensed by the “God thing” and freaked out by couples who have been attending meetings for close to a decade. Howie returns to work and old schedule, an attempt at normalcy. Becca tries to be happy for her wayward sister who is suddenly pregnant, and tries to stay quiet when her mother, bless her heart, offers her advice about how to deal with the grief.
But what is most evident is that Becca and Howie have their own very different ways of dealing with the loss of their son, and the conflict of RABBIT HOLE, which is beautifully staged by director John Cameron Mitchell and acted by Kidman and Eckhart, is that their individual needs are driving a wedge of distance and silence between them. Becca starts to take all of the pictures their son drew down from the fridge and launders his clothes to remove his smell from them. She bags them up and gives them away. Howie, on the other hand, doesn’t want to touch anything in the boy’s room. In the middle of the night, he’s fiddling with his iPhone or the old camcorder, rewatching video footage of a then-whole family. He keeps going to therapy even after Becca stops. In large part, their needs and desires are at complete odds with one another.
The conflict and interest escalates when Becca begins to follow the whereabouts of the teenager who struck their son. She ends up befriending him, though befriending is probably not the right word. Howie, meanwhile, befriends a woman from group therapy whose marriage goes the way of that fabled majority. That woman offers Howie the intimacy his wife says she can’t, but Howie will not accept it out of devotion to his partner-in-grief.
I cannot accurately express how moved I was when I first read Lindsay-Abaire’s Pulitzer Prize-winning play and then saw it performed at the Goodman Theatre in Chicago in 2007. I was so stunned with not only the depth of this couple’s despair, but the undeniable honesty, humanity, and even humor the play possessed. So I was nervous about seeing the film version.
Fortunately, and probably because the playwright maintained possession of his own work for the screen adaptation, the film retains the bulk of the original play. Working in the new conventions of film, it takes some of the moments that were only conversations in the play—such as an incident where Becca lashes out at a mom in the grocery story who won’t buy her kid some fruit snacks—and literally presents them here. Those changes are to be expected, and most of them work okay.
There is something small lacking for me in this film version of RABBIT HOLE, though. And while I couldn’t quite put my finger on it at first, I think I know what it is.
In the play, all of the action takes place in that house—the place where their son’s memory looms and where every item therein contains a memory of him. The conversations between characters in the play, such as the aforementioned example of Becca’s anger at a mom at the store, are told around the kitchen table in the play; the manner in which they are told serve to deepen our understanding of those characters almost more than actually witnessing the events do. The teen boy responsible for the accident shows up at their house in the play, not in a neutral park as he does here in the film (until the end, anyway). That, for me, adds another element of depth that isn’t duplicated here.
Staging the entire work inside the family house spoke volumes for how Becca is trapped after her son dies. Howie comes and goes, but she’s stuck there. It’s hard for a film to stay that visually static, and this one doesn’t even attempt to. That’s understandable, but it deflates the emotion a little bit. And for a while there, I worried that Mitchell and Lindsay-Abaire were going to take Howie too far down a different path from the original work, though I’m happy to say this doesn’t happen.
One thing that is absolutely wonderful in this filmed version of the play is the acting. I dare say that this is the finest work of Nicole Kidman’s career. Yes, she won an Oscar for disappearing under a prosthetic nose in “The Hours,” but here she is more vulnerable, raw, and even funny than I have ever seen her. I expect her to contend for the big awards for this performance, and it’s a bit of a shame that her work won’t be flashy enough in this year of outstanding work to earn her a second Oscar, but she’d be deserving.
She’s so unbelievably good in RABBIT HOLE, in fact, that it’d be easy to overlook Aaron Eckhart. I’ve even read a few reviews that said that he was bad and that Kidman blows him off the screen. I think that’s unfair, and not even accurate. In fact, the real tragedy is that Eckhart will get overlooked for what I feel is maybe his best work, too. Howie’s pain and journey are every bit as real as Becca’s; they’re just different. The two of them together are fantastic.
Equally fantastic is the always wonderful Dianne Wiest as Becca’s mother, who mines a little bit of her work in “Parenthood” here but is less of a pin cushion. As a mother who has lost a son herself, Wiest conveys the confusion of a woman who can’t understand that what happened to her doesn’t translate directly to what is happening to her daughter. Some of the best words of wisdom in the play come during a scene in this film version when Becca asks her mother when the grief goes away.
There is nothing special about Mitchell’s directing, but that is not a negative. Having been so flashy with his indie films “Hedwig and the Angry Inch” and “Shortbus,” one might have expected work with far less restraint than this. Most of his choices border on TV movie-ish, but he is right to leave the work to the actors, and directs their performances well.
There is absolutely no doubt that RABBIT HOLE is a sad, sad movie. It’s hard to watch, especially if you are a parent yourself. But it rings so true and is so wise. It is a moving story of the human spirit that doesn’t quite move you on film to the extent that it does on the stage, when those emotions are just that much more raw. But I’m thankful for having a film to remember this wonderful play by.
3.5 out of 4
Black Swan (2010)
The front-runner for this year’s “messy masterpiece” award is BLACK SWAN, auteur Darren Aronofsky’s ballet thriller starring a give-her-the-Oscar-now-dammit Natalie Portman as a stressed-out ballerina whose landing of the lead role in “Swan Lake” becomes both her career’s apex and her undoing. A film that I can only compare in terms of feeling to the way I felt after watching “There Will Be Blood” a few years ago, I think this is going to play itself out to be a rather polarizing film. I know of a few people who have seen it multiple times and have heralded it as a work of genius. I know others who found it so melodramatic and ridiculous that they couldn’t handle it.