Oscar predictions!

I’m starting to grow a little tired of guessing who will be nominated for the Academy Awards because it’s gotten a lot easier to find out what all of the professional pundits think, and my decisions are always heavily influenced by them. Guys like Dave Karger of Entertainment Weekly and Tom O’Neil (my hero) over at Gold Derby have access to actual voters, and I really don’t. So it’s not exactly smart on my part to ignore their ideas.

It’s also foolish to think just with my own head and heart. The nominations are not always about who best deserves these accolades; sometimes it’s about who has had a long and unrewarded career—who’s due. And other political factors can come into play as well.

The format I use for my nomination predictions is the same one I've used for the past decade or so. I attempt to predict who will be nominated in the "big" categories: Picture, Director and the four acting categories. I predict the five nominees and provide two alternates that I think could sneak in. I give myself a point for each one I get right and a half-point for alternates. This used to total 40 points, but now it will total 45 because of the expansion of the Best Picture race to 10 nominees. Then, I tack on what I call "The 10," which is a list of 10 random nominees from any of the other categories I feel certain will be nominated.

Check back here soon to see how I did. The nominations are only nine hours away!

BEST PICTURE

Like last year, there are essentially five films that are truly competing for this award and then five others who will be lucky to consider themselves nominees in this category but have a much smaller chance of winning. Everyone believes this is already whittled down to a two-horse race between THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE KING’S SPEECH. I think it’s a little dangerous not to include a few more films at the top as well, though I admit that these two are the front-runners.

My picks: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit
My alternates: Winter’s Bone, The Ghost Writer
Second guessing myself: Winter’s Bone has been on most lists for a long time now, and it’s a good movie. But I’m letting my heart get the better of me here because 127 Hours is a GREAT movie, and I think Boyle, a recent Best Picture and Director winner, should have more friends in the voting block. There’d be room for both if I didn’t think that The Town now feels likely, too.

BEST DIRECTOR

My picks: Daren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), David O. Russell (The Fighter)
My alternates: Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit) and Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
Second guessing myself: I’m feeling confident about this category, as this basically lines up with the DGA nods and they tend to not vary by more than one nomination. After seeing True Grit, I feel like it’s a fantastic film that is not very Coen-y, and it will probably score in the screenplay and acting categories, along with technical nods. This lets Russell in for stepping into a project that was already in the works and doing a good job with it. I have NO doubts about any of the other nominees.

BEST ACTOR

My picks: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)
My alternates: Robert Duvall (Get Low), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
Second guessing myself: Duvall would replace Bardem, but I feel confident about the other choices. Wahlberg would be swept in with the other acting nominees from his film, and that could very easily happen and would not be shameful, as he gives the most understated performance of all of those listed here. The name I’m nervous about not including is Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. But I think Michelle Williams has a better chance than he does, though he’s a fantastic actor. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about leaving him off my list completely. I also thought about Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, but not everyone loved his work in that film as much as I did.

BEST ACTRESS

My picks: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
My alternates: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Second guessing myself: Steinfeld has been on everyone’s supporting list all season, but that is a lead performance and my gut tells me we’ll in for the surprise we got when Kate Winslet was nominated in lead instead of supporting for The Reader (which she won). I’m putting Steinfeld as a supporting actress nominee, too, just in case. So I’m essentially throwing away one slot by double-booking her. This keeps me from adding in Leslie Manville for Another Year, a much-talked-about performance that I have not seen and also one that I’ve seen on a few supporting lists. And what about Hilary Swank? I’m nervous not having her on here, though I think she’s a long shot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My picks: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
My alternates: Matt Damon (True Grit), Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps)
Second guessing myself: I’m confident about this category. Douglas would be a sympathy vote for his recent cancer battle and the fact that he’s reprising a character over 20 years later that won an Oscar already. I wonder if Sam Rockwell has a chance for Conviction. Or maybe Pete Postlethwaite for The Town, in light of his recent death. The only other name that I wish I had room for here is John Fawkes for Winter’s Bone. I’m more nervous about omitting his name than any of these others.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My picks: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
My alternates: Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Second guessing myself: Steinfeld was once a lock for me here but now I am wondering if there won’t be a best actress surprise with her. I’m feeling like she will be nominated in one spot or the other, so I’m either getting a point for her or a half-point. Kunis is the shaky choice for me; I could see her being swapped out for Barbara Hershey from the same film. Short of Leslie Manville showing up here, I think just about any other name not already listed here would be the shocker of the day.

THE TEN

I will be shocked if I got any of these wrong…

1. Art Direction: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
2. Costume Design: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
3. Visual Effects: INCEPTION
4. Original Score: Alexander Desplat (The King’s Speech)
5. Original Screenplay: David Seidler (The King’s Speech)
6. Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
7. Animated Feature: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
8. Animated Feature: TOY STORY 3
9. Cinematography: Wally Pfister (Inception)
10. Documentary Feature: WAITING FOR SUPERMAN